OCTA Research said its latest Tugon ng Masa survey points to a Philippine political landscape that is becoming increasingly polarized, regionalized, and fragmented ahead of the 2028 elections.
According to OCTA Research, the hypothetical Robredo–Tulfo tandem dominates NCR and Balance Luzon, while the Duterte–Marcos tandem commands overwhelming support in Mindanao. The Visayas, meanwhile, is emerging as a fiercely contested political battleground.
The survey organization described the evolving environment as one marked by sharper regional and socioeconomic divisions rather than broad national consensus.
In practical terms, the findings suggest that Philippine politics may now be consolidating into competing political territories with very different identities, narratives, and emotional loyalties.
The Robredo–Tulfo tandem draws strength primarily from NCR, Balance Luzon, and parts of the Visayas. Duterte–Marcos, meanwhile, remains structurally powerful because of its overwhelming Mindanao base and continuing support among lower-income sectors.
OCTA Research also found distinct socioeconomic patterns in voter preferences. Robredo–Tulfo performed strongest among Class D respondents, while Duterte–Marcos maintained stronger support among Class E voters.
These patterns indicate that political divisions are no longer simply ideological. They are increasingly geographic, economic, and emotional.
The implications for governance may be profound.
Highly polarized political environments often create difficulties for national consensus-building. Policy debates become emotionally charged. Political compromise becomes harder. Public trust becomes fragmented across competing realities.
The survey findings also help explain why political tensions in the Philippines increasingly feel permanent rather than temporary. Different regions and sectors are responding to different political narratives, media ecosystems, and leadership identities.
OCTA Research emphasized that the current survey is only an early-stage hypothetical measure and not a prediction of eventual electoral outcomes. Still, the organization acknowledged that the findings reveal a markedly more competitive and contested political environment compared to previous survey rounds.
The broader concern is that polarization may continue deepening over the next several years as national politics becomes increasingly shaped by identity-based loyalties rather than broad coalition-building.
At the same time, polarization does not necessarily mean political collapse. Competitive democracies often experience periods of sharp division before new political alignments eventually emerge.
What the OCTA Research findings clearly show, however, is that the era of a single dominant electoral narrative may now be ending. The Philippines appears to be entering a more fragmented and volatile political period where no coalition can easily claim uncontested national dominance.
That shift alone may fundamentally reshape how political campaigns are fought, how alliances are built, and how governance itself is negotiated in the years leading to 2028.
